Dubai crisis will have its fallout and India will have a major impact on remittance and job losses with State of Kerala bearing the major impact causing social and financial crisis. Realty sector also would face pressure as Dubai investor have major stake in Indian realty due Joint venture and cross holding. http://www.businessworld.in/bw/2009_12_04_The_Realty_Check.html The proposed real estate regulation Bill could change the way the sector works. Regulation can prevent a Dubai-like casualty, say experts. Some argue that Indian companies have just escaped what is happening in Dubai now. Jayesh Desai, partner, Ernst & Young, who has been tracking the sector for over 15 years, says India’s recent real estate crisis, which for now seems to have subsided, was mainly the sector’s own making, coupled with the fact that there is no regulation in the industry.
Dubai: From growth to crisis: Among the Indian banks, Bank of Baroda has an exposure of about Rs 5,000 crore in Dubai, which accounts for half of its loans in the UAE. Several Indian companies (Nagarjuna Constructions, Larsen & Toubro, Punj Lloyd, Voltas, Omaxe, Aban Offshore, Spicejet and Indiabulls Real Estate) have investment and business exposure in Dubai, but they have generally rushed to declare their exposure to be marginal. http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2009/12/01/stories/2009120150680900.htm
The official estimate of the UAE's sovereign debt is $80 billion, but some analysts say it is much more and could be even twice that amount. European banks are heavily involved: according to the Wall Street Journal (using data from the Bank for International Settlements) European banks alone have almost $84 billion in exposure. UK banks (including HSBC, Standard Chartered, Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland's ABN Amro) have by far the largest exposure at $49.5 billion, while French and German banks are also implicated.
http://www.deccanchronicle.com/sunday-debate/india’s-wealth-down-dubai’s-quicksand-284
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15016192&fsrc=nwl An Iranian nuclear bomb, or the bombing of Iran?
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15016124 What would happen if a member of the euro area could no longer finance its debt?
The country that stands out as unrepentant is Greece. It ran persistent deficits even in good times. Its new government said in October that this year’s budget deficit would be more than twice as big as previously advertised. The government says it will cut the deficit to 9.1% of GDP next year. But pressure from euro-zone finance ministers for stronger action is building: they will meet in February to approve a new Greek plan to fix its finances, which must be submitted to the European Commission this month.
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15016168&fsrc=nwl The first of three articles on Dubai’s debt crisis looks at the international reaction. Markets seem to have got over the shock, but there are still disturbing lessons.
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