Sunday, October 24, 2010

India 3rd largest trade deficit-Option danger

News flow in week which are interesting
India is the 3rd largest merchandise trade deficit after the US and the UK, according to data from the WTO’s just-released International Trade Statistics 2010. And BL say India can become 2nd while many countries with trade surplus are worried about currencies, “Some emerging G-20 nations like South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia, which have recently taken action to curb their currencies, have blamed loose U.S. monetary policy for the massive capital inflows for pushing their currencies up. China has even branded it "irresponsible." India strong rupee has started to impact exports, while imports are becoming cheaper. Steel which saw price hike can see price cut as production in china has increased as power rationing eases, Globally also Steel prices have started to soften.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2010/10/22/stories/2010102253260400.htm  India has the world's third largest merchandise trade deficit after the US and the UK, according to data from the World Trade Organization’s just-released International Trade Statistics 2010. The Commerce Ministry has projected India's trade gap to touch $135 billion during 2010-11, though this figure pertains to the fiscal year ended March 31, 2011, whereas the WTO data is based on calendar year. If the $135 billion projection holds for the calendar year as well and there is no change to the UK's $129 billion number – both not wholly unrealistic assumptions – India's trade deficit would end up being next only to the US.

Many use option & futures aggressively to make fast money and range bound in last 10months made many to write options, as I always carry a view that Option is a Ice-cream it will melt once taken out of freezer. Even today of the total open interest position of overall market Rs.1,92,021crs Options alone is Rs.1,17,342crs and bets in Nifty option alone is Rs.1,06,769. Many new timers want to use Option & Futures even without understanding is the biggest worry.

Aditya Birla Money MD quits after bets on Nifty go wrong- firm accepted employee stock options of these officials as margins for these trades. “Fund managers of the scheme bet that the index and stocks would continue to move in a thin band. But the markets surged unexpectedly resulting in these losses,” said a head of a wealth management arm of a private bank. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-company/corporate-announcement/Aditya-Birla-Money-MD-quits-after-bets-on-Nifty-go-wrong/articleshow/6777543.cms

China hike rate global market corrects shipping rates fall, Steel prices softens and now GDP growth is slowing as per data released by China and this normally impacts global commodity markets.

China c.bank warns of inflation, asset bubble

BEIJING, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Inflation and asset bubble risks could increase sharply in China, and counter-cyclical loan controls are needed as a line of defense, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in comments published on Thursday. China, which saw its banking system come through the global financial crisis largely unscathed, is grappling with a raft of potential dangers, Zhou said.

INTERVIEW-China needs more rate rises this year -government researcher
BEIJING, Oct 20 (Reuters) - China needs to raise interest rates at least once more this year to ensure that the red-hot property market can be effectively cooled, a government researcher told Reuters. Wang Xiaoguang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Governance, an advisory body to the central government, said Tuesday's increase of 25 basis points was not drastic enough to produce the government's desired effect.

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