Daily Report October 16th Monday

“If you can’t sleep at night because of your stock market position, then you have gone too far. If this is the case, then sell your position down to the sleeping level.”
Nifty (3676) SUPPORT-3654-3631-3594 RESISTANCE-3702-3739-3774 Nifty range 3655-3739 now markets will face a minor resistance at 3730-3739 and this would be crucial level to watch and a close above 3710 would give the target of 3856 faster than Oct end and stop loss for the same is now 3594 on closing basis and 3560 on intraday basis. Nifty is lagging behind Sensex and this is very tricky situation for analyst who follows only nifty as market is likely to misguide many on regular basis. TOP 5GAINERS= RCOM-SUZLON-SIEMENS-INFOSYSTCH-HDFCBANK TOP5LOSER=HINDPETRO-BPCL-ORIENTBANK-MTNL-NATIONALUM. P/E=21.36 p/b=4.74 adv=34 dec=16 NSE adv: 437 dec: 504 -vol-rs.8177crs

Sensex (12736) SUPPORT-12671-12588-12470 RESISTANCE-12834-12915-13006 Sensex
Opened with a gap 12558-12632 and moved up to reach its all time high with a daily and weekly close from 11May2006 the high is crossed on 13Oct2006 5months time with Sensex in uncharted territory markets has to reach great height soon. ( if there is a gap up open reduce u r long position and pick it up later)
8dma=12415 13dma=12401 21dma=12287 34dma=12093 55dma=11733 OPEN=12632 HIGH=12756 LOW=12632 BSE adv: 1083 dec: 1444 -vol-rs.4084crs
Fiis buyer rs.539 crs & Mutual funds seller rs.37 on Thursday, Fiis buyer rs.2167crs in Oct month and buyer rs.24981Crs in 2006, mutual fund seller rs.34crs in Oct month. F&O DATA Fiis buy rs.1544crs in nifty future and buy rs.188crs in stock future on 13th October and provisional Fiis buy in cash rs.995crs source NSE website

Day That Ended: Market opened strong and sensex crossing all time high with good volumes with FIIs buying in a single day crossed rs.2727 which includes provisional figure cash+F&O, with METAL & AUTO sector not participating as markets wants performance. Market is discounting all good & bad news perfectly underperformer are punished and out performers are rewarded so please keep a close watch as the news flows and results are too many in days to come. International markets U.S market bullish close with DJIA closing at all time high Indian ADRs bullish EURO markets mixed CRUDE $58.57.
Outlook for Monday: Flat to weak opening and this market would see running correction which means intraday market will correct and move up so intraday player should play there game different. With too many results slated for the coming week TEXTILES-SUGAR-CEMENT would be the sector to watch CEMENT stocks which where moving uniformly in channel is starting to breakout from that SUGAR sector is showing signs of bottoming out with TEXTILE sector showing a big domestic demand and international demand many players are busy expanding there presence and many brand tie up is also happening. Value buy; Raymond-Gdl-EID parry-Manind-Magalamcement-Beml-Gammon.

TRADING IDEAS-SUNPHARMA-DISHMANPHARMA-BEL

GRAPH views: http://prabhakar-views.blogspot.com GDL(rs.169) the stock is seeing a unusal rise in volumes with delivery and the stock has seen strong support which has been rising and now at rs.158-162 the downside and any move above rs.175 would target rs.215-220 at a fast rate.
http://in.groups.yahoo.com/group/prabhakar-views/join

Counter view: By saving more today, we can reduce the future burden of demographic change, Saving more requires that we consume less or work more either way sacrifice---taken from FED chairman Ben S. Bernanke for which the link is given below in continuation to that I would like to add few things to Indian context so one has to read that to understand this. Japan had a boom time economy in 1980-1990 U.S in 1990-2000 & now India is having boom End year will be know only when crash landing or soft landing of the economy happens in 5-8 yrs, why should one discuss this topic now- we have a younger generation which is pushing the Indian boom they are earning at a faster pace than there previous generation there are more independent in there life style & spending more than what they can earn ( credit off take of the economy by the retail sector credit cards sale and money spend using them are few pointers ) or committing there future salary now itself as they spend on housing, cars & many more things on easily availed credit not a bad idea.
The so called self sustaining boom in India is due to spending power which this new generation has got; due to high pay with regular hike in pay scales, and attitude of the generation to spend more on themselves and luxury way of living is creating demand for product and service, we have almost moved from a saving economy to a spending economy and there is sizable fall in saving rate compared with growth of the economy which is very good when growth is there or till the growth is sustainable all will be good. (attrition rate in many industries will prove high pay & regular hikes and we are getting to a point where labour is getting scare and if we don’t develop a proper system there would be shortage of skilled labour soon, even basic labor in many states metro are becoming very difficult & expensive to get )
Will history repeat? Any booming economy will have to face a slowdown at some point of time which can push job cut, cut in salary, credit squeeze, cut in spending rates this is almost a cascading effect. The message- taking credit is not bad few assets can be accumulated only if credit is taken but taking credit to close one more credit & keeping a tight repayment without any saving will danger u when u have a case of emergency. In U.S there is fall or negative off take of credit cards which means many have sundered there credit cards so younger generation in India has to take clue from others economy while repaying u r credit have u are saving also running parallel this requires a sacrifice & if that is not done today it will never be done. SAVE TODAY for a ever green future.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2006/20061004/default.htm Remarks by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke-The Coming Demographic Transition: Will We Treat Future Generations Fairly?

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.