Daily Report October 9th Monday

Nifty (3569) SUPPORT-3539-3513-3485 RESISTANCE-3592-3609-3645 Nifty range 3539-3609 now markets is not taking cues from index it has become very stock specific so index going down or moving up has little effect on overall markets sentiment, but nifty should cross 3588 for fresh rally and below 3539 would be bad. SL-3519 on closing basis & 3485 on intraday basis for target3856 is maintained. TOP5GAINERS=VSNL-BPCL-HINDPETRO-SIEMENS-MTNL
TOP5LOSER=HINDLEVER-GLAXO-ITC-DABUR-ORIENTBANK. P/E=20.82 p/b=4.73 adv=26 dec=24 NSE adv: 597 dec: 334 -vol-rs.6604crs

Sensex (12372) SUPPORT-12331-12238-12105 RESISTANCE-12442-12504-12624 Sensex moved in a narrow range & weekly negative close with 12485-12490 proving major resistance on the higher side it is important to break or else we can test to close the gap at 12128. And with INFOSYS results where many investors have a feeling markets have corrected big downside 11800 would be a very strong support.
8dma=12356 13dma=12278 21dma=12121 34dma=11951 55dma=11539 OPEN=12299 HIGH=12415 LOW=12299 BSE adv: 1592 dec: 993 -vol-rs.3723crs
Fiis seller rs.N.A crs & Mutual funds seller rs.N.A on Thursday, Fiis buyer rs.579crs in Oct month and buyer rs.23393Crs in 2006, mutual fund seller rs.112crs in Oct month till available data. F&O DATA Fiis buy rs.172crs in nifty future and sell rs.212crs in stock future on 6th October and provisional Fiis sell in cash rs.126crs source NSE website

Day That Ended: Market lackluster if one where to look at index jus 23point movement for nifty jus .65% movement between high & low but the action was in TEXTILES sector with festival demand good pricing power for cotton yarn & with Wilbur Ross billionaire turnaround specialist acquiring of textile firm OCM India Ltd for $37 million in cash gave a major boost to the sector. FIIs have been taking profits before result season which is factor to be watched. International markets closed weak Indian ADRs negative with global trend except VSNL, Crude $59.76.
Outlook for Monday: Result season time to wait for few results to come which would give a better view of sectors which has growth potential and stocks which have performed above analyst expectation. CASTROLINDIA launching multi brand motorcycle service (castrol bike zone) would help the company in future growth with results on 14 Oct it would be interesting to watch. Sugar companies have started to show a sign of moving up with Sugar Mills in Western India Begin Crushing on Record Harvest, India consumes 13 percent of the world's sugar so one cant ignore this sector totally EIDPARRY-RENUKASUGAR-BALARAPURCHINI-TRIVENIENGG.

VSNL value unlocking: VSNL moved with good volumes after the government has accorded final approvals to the de-merger scheme and reportedly will bear all stamp duty (transaction) costs arising from the de-merger which was a major issue between GOVT & TATA now it is being resolved, and as per many reports VALUATION of real estate per share comes near rs.200 as a conservative figure whereas rs.300-rs.400 also can be possible if GOVT can deal efficient as per reports. Real estate 773acres of surplus land- real estate in Delhi -70 acres in Greater Kailash and 58 acres in Chattarpur--- Dighi property in Pune- 524 acres. And the major clarification= Current shareholders will also benefit, all shareholders of VSNL barring the major shareholders the TATA group. Conclusion: Value unlocking can give share holders of VSNL a share in VSNL telecom which is a TATA group and a share in VSNL real estate which at a minimum value of rs.200 which GOVT should take forward. Simple calculation at closing price rs.432 less rs.200 unused real estate VSNL telecom stock stand at rs.232 with a trailing EPS 15.44 P/E stand at 15 with book value around rs.195 looks attractive for a long term (this is my understanding after reading many reports so investor should take there own informed decision)
STOCK TECH views: http://prabhakar-views.blogspot.com MATRIXLABS(267) buy with a stoploss of rs.261 target rs.295 and once the stock crosses rs.280 jus use trailing stop loss which would protect u r profits. Average volume % lifted stand above 75% and the stock finds support near 200dma. EIDPARRY(162) from a high of rs.369 the stock has corrected till rs.151 and with almost 21weeks of downtrend the stock has shown a sign of reversing and rs.260 can be the target and with 60% potential upside it is worth buying and holding for December quarter results when sugar has better results.
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Counter view: Flow of results will start which is where caution is advised as the results is almost discounted in the stock price guidance & future growth is where everyone would be looking for, & simple thumb rule is never buy on good news or sell on bad news as many factors govern a stock price jus not a single quarter results so do homework well before results as many reports about projected earning is already there & we live in a internet world which has made many things possible at faster rate. And if u have a long term investment idea find growth stock which will give good returns over a long term & use panic to add slowly and have cash 30% minimum during results season as opportunity is at large as underperformer become out performer & vice versa.

Disclaimer: These recommendations are based on the theory of technical analysis and personal observations. This does not claim for profit. I am not responsible for any losses made by traders. It is only the outlook of the market with reference to its previous performance. You are advised to take your position with your sense and judgment. I am trying to consider the fundamental validity of stocks as far as possible, but demand and supply affects it with vision variations.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2006/02/pdf/weo0906.pdf
http://in.today.reuters.com/News/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-10-03T153119Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-270460-1.xml acquisition of textile firm OCM India Ltd for $37 million
http://www.businessstandard.com/common/storypage_c.php?leftnm=11&bKeyFlag=IN&autono=16016
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aoI6dSPYSHTg&refer=india SUGAR